Friday nights are movie night at my place. Life in the Cayman Islands doesn’t offer that much cinema selection, so I built a really kick-ass theater in the house. Imagine feather stuffed sofas, suede paneled walls, muti-tiered wood ceiling, a monster-ass Capiz shell chandelier and the Panasonic 103. Tonight’s viewing selection consisted of “Hot Tub Time Machine”.
A bunch of guys go back to the 80’s after an electrical short circuit in a magic time-machine. Boy that flick cuts close to home on a few levels. From Clark Duke who my homies and I have run into socially – at Sak’s, buying pajamas bottoms for the Playboy midsummer party (that jacket’s vintage right Clark?), to John Cusack whose acting pretty much defined my youth and early adulthood; to the present economic funk which mirrors the early eighties malaise. I grew up in the 80’s, and my life has turned out so over-the-top, I never could have imagined my ride to the future (present). All time travel stories feature the Butterfly Effect. Don’t step on that frog! You could start World War 3!
Let’s flash back in recent time for a moment. Remember when people were so worried about the fate of Apple, back when Steve Jobs health took a turn for the worse? Most of those worrying were blissfully ignorant that some of Steve’s great thinking could have been spawned by the butterfly effect. I could imagine that weekend catch-up call with “the Woz” (friend of Jobs, now retired from Apple) which gave spark to a new user interface or chipset design and subsequent marching orders from Jobs to an army of hundreds, ultimately leading to the iPhone. None of those fretting over Jobs health ever considered what would happen if the Woz got taken out in an unfortunate segway polo accident, potentially muting the impetus for Steve’s brainchildren to come.
Consider our modern financial system in the context of the Butterfly Effect. The so-called “productivity miracle” which followed Sept 11, really turned out to be a gigantic levering-up, made possible by low interest steroids, facilitated by a frightened Alan Greenspan after the 2000 Nasdaq crash and 9/11. The “conundrum” which followed, manifested itself as a debt bubble and subsequent breakdown in the summer of 2007.
I still remember the day the system broke, stumbling onto this post on a real estate forum while vacationing in California. Rediscovering this thread reminds me of a prescient moment exactly two months prior, when I posted a warning on my blog. The doubting commentators on both posts, frozen in time, serving as a cautionary tale for us to learn from.
Butterfly effects cascading from that minor regional burp in California are still with us today. That the DOW and S&P are off their lows is hardly an indicator of an honest recovery. When your portfolio returns to the “dollar value” it had before the crash, what will you be able to buy with that money? If the DOW climbs back over 14000 when your health insurance is 50% more, taxes strip 20% more away, and everyone with a home is a millionaire, returning to 14000 will be a victory that reminds you more of the lyrics of a particular Linkin Park song, than an 80’s feel-good anthem.
While a trip down your favorite 80′s cruising strip can be a real buzzkill these days, the second-life version of that thoroughfare is doing much better in 2010, thanks to a pervasive growth trend which continues to fuel investment online. There are big opportunities ahead for those of us in the domain space who took the advice of an even earlier post of mine. For those of you who protected your personal treasury and squirreled away nuts for the long winter which is now upon us, I feel like good things lie ahead.
If you look up – way up, you can see a new butterfly flapping its wings, whose effects will be cascading toward us one day. While many of us are feeling 50% poorer these days, the latest Forbes 400 list shows that the rich have once again gotten richer. About 8% richer in 2010. This extra wealth sloshes around with the hot money at institutional banks/investment funds and needs to be placed. It’s no coincidence that I have been getting emails from investment banks recently, kicking the tires of my business again. While “Hot Tub Time Machine” may not have struck the social chord it did with me, “the Social Network” is certainly rekindling interest in web based investments. Why wouldn’t it? Returns on the Web are far greater than what can be achieved in other classes, and will be for years to come.
So it occurred to me 2 years ago that many rich folks in technology keep expanding the core businesses which made them rich in the first place. As they do, they begin colliding with one another. Apple made the iPhone and collided with Nokia, then Google’s Android OS collided with Apple. Now Facebook is going to collide with both by launching their own phone. I got time-travel like chills recently when I read this story that mirrors my long-held view:
“”blame, or thank, the Internet and Moore’s law for all this turf-encroaching. As more computers hook together at higher speeds, and the semiconductors in each gain density at an increasingly lower cost, the more complex software you can write, and it starts to do more.””
This gent has been reading my mind. As more software is prepackaged and made available to creative hackers the world-over, it will inspire utilities which fit together like lego and get built into wonderful killer-app like sculptures.
Remember young Feross Aboukhadijeh who read about Google Instant and recognizing this innovation as the coding parlor trick it is, had the good fortune to be first out of the gate to perform the seemingly obvious 5 hour copy-cat assembly on YOUTUBE.com. Feross made himself appear genius in the eyes of many, and his gumption landed him a job at YOUTUBE.
As more coders out there begin to assemble these obvious puzzle pieces into sculptures, getting those competing works of art in front of people to see them, will become more important than ever. That distribution part is getting harder as the billionaires who control the platforms, keep bumping into one another and putting up walls to deny traffic to perceived competitors. Only the disruptive power of domain names can create instant reach without judgment of the content, and that sets a floor on the value of our eyeballs.
Where else other than domain name portfolios can you BUY 10 or 20 million unique visits a month of immutable din-level traffic and point that traffic to whatever site you want? The audience comes at the same level regardless of content and has a return path for users in the form of the name they typed, to point their friends to! What is the value of being able to fill 200 Wembley stadiums each month and show those people the content you choose, without consequence to the traffic volume?
While I have been expecting this particular butterfly effect to come our way for several years now, I will never understand why Yahoo or Google or Facebook or Viacom or Fox (and countless other media entities) failed to lock down the most obvious traffic producing real estate on the Web. I can’t recall one major media co that has called me or my colleagues over the years, to discuss anything. While I’m ambivalent about that, I just don’t understand the logic.
Microsoft spent billions developing its search product and the most valuable asset it has to show for this spending spree is the Bing.com domain name and the hijacked error search stream which fuels it. Wouldn’t it have been better to form a team to get to know the rag-tag domain community? To send this team to the assorted domain conferences over the years and acquire tranches of generic names for 20 million here, 40mm there or 120mm over there? Rather than being back where they started, they would own a mammoth media property which can be developed name by name, or used to aggregate a more permanent, non-error based visitor stream?
For all the billions sloshing around in sovereign wealth funds, why have none of those funds reached into strategically valuable media assets like domain names? As a foreign nation, isn’t it more clever to exchange the present scrip they’re hoarding for media assets which have the ability to reach the hearts and minds of the people and governments they are trying to influence around the World?
Generic domain name networks which drive 30 million unique visitors per month of unstoppable traffic can be bought for $5-10 per visitor. As the years cascade onward, and new platforms funded by today’s richest techies keep coming, all of us who own the Internet’s Real Estate will be blessed. We have the traffic, we own the properties that people have been programmed to visit, and we’ll have the luxury of deciding how to sell them.
Whether it be the continued competition for traffic between social networks or the advent of super-wifi literally all news these days portends well for those who own websites and domain names. The broader economy will make the road between here and the destination I envision, very bumpy indeed, but it is a good time to be a debt free name owner.
So continue gathering your cash to weather the storm ahead of us folks, slip into the water with a 4 pack of your favorite wine coolers. The 80’s are back in more ways than one. There’s something about this hot tub and our collective position in it, that I like.
Great Post, Thank You…
***FS*** You’re too kind, and first comment
Hi Frank,
Love the post mate!
I think in most cases the “domain name forrest” can’t be seen for the trees but over time the true value of a traffic producing generic domain will become apparent to more and more businesses.
I believe that we are still at the equivalent stage that the motor car was at with the Mode T Ford and we have a long way to go still.
I just keep buying and developing my properties and feel that the time will come that we all talk about as domainers when a crital mass point is reached. I have not yet started to hold me breath though! LOL
On a side note Frank (and feel free to delete this from the post)
I was wondering if you would be willing to be a guest on my Domain Names Podcast at OzDomainer. http://www.ozdomainer.com/category/domain-names-podcasts/
I interviewed Paul Sloan & David Carter a while back and Paul said he would ask if you would come on the show, but not sure if he has had a chance to yet.
The podcast has been running for several years now and has been very well recieved by the domain community but they keep asking me to interview you!! LOL
I would be honored to have you on the show but also understand if you can’t or do not feel that you want to do it.
As the saying goes, “Don’t Ask, You Don’t Get”
Thanks very much for your time Frank and I hope to speak with you soon.
Kind regards
Ed Keay-Smith
OzDomainer.com
***FS*** I’d be happy to do it Ed. Just drop me a not to my admin email with a clear subject and soebody will get it to me. Thanks to you.
Frank, the DOW is approaching 11k. Please look deep into your crystal ball and tell us where the stock market is going from here.
I travel the whole U.S. with my eyes wide open, and the businesses all around are very slow…but the stock market keeps going up.
So please look into your crystal ball and tell us where the stock market is going from here…Should we jump on the hot wagon and buy stocks from here hoping DOW goes to 14k or should we start selling short hoping DOW goes back down to reality 8k.
Any stocks you recommend buying or shorting?
Help us make some money Frank with your stock tips…thanks!
***FS*** Thanks Anunt, but I am no trader I buy companies like ticker HE.. Hi dividends since forever and the only way to get your electricity on the island of Hawaii. You can jump in and out of stocks and maybe you’ll get lucky, but it’s hard to stay ahead of inflation and trading costs. The best advice I can give you is go into a particular market when NOBODY wants to talk about it. Real Estate, right now. Go to the court-house steps and get in on those foreclosures. There are going to be more of them and they’re going to get cheaper. But now’s the time to tepidly get started and learn how the system of buying them works if I was stateside, that’s probably something i’d try
I’m a 40 year old Canadian who grew up as a teenager in the 80′s, the Hot Tub Time Machine movie was a laugh, not great but some good gags and 80′s memories, and ofcourse the 80s music I love. Thanks for another post Frank, and please continue with them! Media and technology keep growing and changing, but a good domain name is still needed. I’ll jump in the hot tub with a 6 pack of Kokanee and I hope you are right when you say the 80s are back!
***FS*** In some respects they are Rob. I was a Canadian teenage too once so I’ll join you for that Kokanee, just don’t sit so close to me in the tub.
Excellent post Frank! I completely agree that Google, Facebook, Viacom, Fox, etc. missed the boat here. It seems like these companies have yet to figure-out that Domains = Traffic!
For some reason now I feel the need to grab a beer and hop in the hot tub
Although I’m cruising at 38,000 feet now so guess I’ll have to wait until I land!
***FS*** Thank-you. You are the first comment I know of, on my blog, made from the air.
Great post frank and have really learned a lot from you when I came inn.
I’m afraid things are going get pretty tough for all of us.
Frank have you had another dream the past couple months? Lol. Now driving traffic to myspace.com and other places? Take your jet to visit the guy you dreamed about in your dream and sell all that traffic.
Glad to see your posting again and hope one day I can have an honor to meet you at a conference
Cheers and enjoy the movies
***FS*** Thanks Jeff. While things may look bad, I really think everything will be alright in the end.. That is, things get better once the crap gets cleared out and false expectations settle to reality. The only question is how long that takes. I always joke, you’ll know things are bad when I fly to a domain conference in a chartered prop Cessna
Thanks again man.
Shell chandelier?
Feather stuffed sofas + suede paneled walls + muti-tiered wood ceiling = disco ball, sir.
Seriously, though, one of the better posts you’ve ever made. The “day the system broke” post you referenced is scary. For me, my ‘oh shit’ moment was in early October 08, sitting in front of my computer with a pot of tea and listening to MSNBC, chatting away in a traders forum, watching the world basically come to an end in a hellish torrent of red candlesticks. It was so, so surreal. I actually went out that day and bought ammo. LOL.
It will be interesting to see where it all winds up. I don’t think fiscal wizardry will get us out of this one. We either tackle the fundamentals, or begin elegant decay.
***FS*** thanks, and I totally agree with your last paragraph. In the end I think everything works out for the US and for name owners .. this is a good business because you can run lean if you need to and because of the low capital expense required to get going.
Interesting read,
In Australia we have been quite lucky and avoided most of the crunch and business is the same as before (properties going up, people spending on renovations etc)
domaining is a great business model due to the lost cost of upkeep (renewing names) can huge profit potentials unlike many other sectors.
from an outside point of view the U.S is too sheltered and keeps everything internal whilst the rest of the world has been open to international companies for many years.
So this makes me think that the U.S will be slower to recover if they dont allow for foreign investment and stop spending trillions of dollars on wars they wont ever win.
the trick is to move towards coal and oil right now as we have 2 massive super-nations emerging being China and India (5 billion people)
***FS*** Very interesting Chris. the US is pretty open to foreigners last time I visited. The biiggest problem is the debt. As Warren Buffet said: Debt makes the good times great and the bad times horrible. There is too much debt in America.. they will need to default at some point. That will cause upheaval for a time but then the Country will be better for it. You’re right.. The multiple wars are unwinnable with today’s forces and there is no appetite in America to double down, so they need to withdraw, start closing many of those far-flung bases and withdraw.
America is a great country but they just need to take better care of its people, maybe more regulated health care as it works pretty well in some countries (not socialist). imagine if all that money went back into the country rather than a few select few. I was watching a series on Vegas the other day and it seems ripe to invest in property there seeing as the aud is at .95usd today.
sydney average 3 bedroom house (within 15km from the city $1m +)
vegas 400k and much better quality.
im seriously thinking of looking into it
great initial post
***FS*** Thanks for your compliment Chris and you are so correct. I see the same dichotomy between housing in Vegas and in my parents town in Canada. I think I’m becoming convincing, because my folks are kicking the tires in depressed the markets of Palm Springs and Arizona. Anyway, you should look into it. I have my hands full or I would too.
Frank,
Great summary of the past, current and future
I can tell you worked on this article for MANY hours. Thank you.
Since Frank always educates and inspires us, I hope I can offer some “big picture” thoughts regarding the past, current and future.
Read up on the birth of the railroad in the mid 1800′s and how it changed the world. You’ll quickly see parallels to the Internet.
Read up on the birth of the automobile and how it changed the world. I scanned this article from a 1923 National Geographic article about the birth of the auto industry http://imodern.com/birth_of_auto_industry.html
As you read about the birth of the railroad and auto industries, you’ll see the Internet industry has a LONG LONG way to go as it changes the world too.
All three industries make the world the “smaller”, increase productivity, commerce and quality of life.
Railroads are about 150 years old and move most of the freight (and coal for energy) in the US.
Autos are about 100 years old and still evolving.
The Internet is really just over 15 years old. Still a baby and look how far we’ve come so far.
Watch this video for a peek into the future of the world and the Internet.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPqHt4LpyKY
From the video, the top ten in-demand jobs in 2010 did not exist in 2004.
So, you have to prepare your children for jobs that do not yet exist using technologies that have not been invented yet.
Enjoy!
PS. I love that last link in your article
***FS*** Rob, you probably worked harder on this comment than I did on my post. This is a great comment and great links, I really appreciate you saying it so eloquently, that last link is for you.
Frank – I am a banker working for a large international investment bank. I’ve been a domainer for years as I see the potential..I feel like I am Buffett circa 1970s literally buying dollar bills for pennies.
Must complement you on your post warning us to get out of Real Estate..it was way before main street or even much of wall street was clued in (even though I recall it contained a chart from a CS publication). It instantly flipped a switch in me and I totally avoided the RE crash by not buying a home as I was shopping for one. I would have lost 30% if I did. i look back at print-outs of some of the homes I wanted to buy and the proces today are 25-30% lower in my area (CT)
A friend just sold his internet business in India which i understood to have been barely profitable and very poorly branded (failed the raio test) for $12m+ within 2 years of launch! It was very well executed however. It’s crazy the amount of money sloshing around there…a building where every apartment is $20m+ and larhgely sold out ALL CASH. THe world’s largest tower, the stock market up 20% this year! Seems just so far removed from the U.S.
***FS*** Just a terrific comment RJ. I’m really glad you personally dodged the housing bullet. On our way to the new normal (i don’t think we’re there just yet) we are going to see a significant breakdown in India and China. China’s housing is deflating now and just like when people said the US version of the housing bubble would be a soft landing, they’re saying that about China now. I think there will be a flood to raise cash over there. That could be bad for treasuries and gold and scare people back into the US for a while and strengthen the dollar (which will probably drift lower till that break happens). After that I think commodities strengthen on the weakness of all currency (because everyone will compete printing money) and eventually you’ll see a default in US debt. Al Jazeera will call it a default, CNN will call it the “NEW NEW DEAL” .. but it will be a default all the same. There is just too much collective public debt in the US to service at normal rates. Anyway, I see domains as valuable the same way the radio waves had value in the 30′s depression. They are a very powerful tool for reaching people. Good luck out there.
Hey Frank,
I look back to our walk on the beach in the Bahamas when gold was at $400 and wish I could jump in a hot tub and turn the clock back to that walk.
I’ve since jumped in at sub-$800. And I’ve been following your advice of cash and buying domains on value dips.
Your postings and replies are the real gold here. And so I read with interest your reply to Anunt about foreclosures.
My questions to you are….
- gold — still buying at $1300?
- cash — how long do you hold fiat before you see the inflationary, debasing eat away at the stockpile? Don’t you get the feeling it is burning a hole in your .1% bank account and needs to be spent (on domains, gold, foreclosures)?
***FS*** Thanks a lot Richard. I remember that walk in Lyford Cay. Take comfort that you’re still doing okay. You may not remember but we passed this guy in a golf cart: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3558485.ece .. Yes, I like gold, because just like .com names, it’s a human behavior metal. .Us and .info resolve just as well as .com. Gold is just a shiny metal like copper or silver, but everyone is indoctrinated to favor the untarnishable metal (and the .com). You can’t fight that. It’s going to be volatile over 1200 though. You could go down 300 an ounce real quick. I’m comfortable with that because I am 100% sure the US will effective go broke (reorganize) in the next 20 years and that will take gold to $3000, $4000, $5000+ .. When George Bush JR took office, the US debt was 5 Trillion USD (it took from George Washington to him to get there). When you came to Lyford Cay it was tracking for 7 Trillion. The collective debt after all this QE is going to be 19 trillion by 2015. People have not priced that into gold.. It’s going to the moon Alice. If I’m right, a lunch at that club will cost 3x what it did when you were there.. or it will feature a lot of mac n cheese. Cash will get perversely stronger when China and India break down, everyone will run back to the dollar. I’m putting all my new money into CASH and domains now because I’m already long commodites. Cash and Domains. Just like my post in 07. There will come a time to spend it on stocks and Real Estate. Maybe once the Fed loses control of interest rates and the market starts raising for them. But you’re not going to regret missing this bottom.
It’s mind boggling how many corporations still don’t get it. Everyday I’m faced with resistance, finding myself explaining and even after showing proof, it still may not sink in. They seem to believe that they can get traffic through other means instead of taking the shortest path. This is the challenge we face, but persistence will eventually convert the nonbeliever. Even if it’s one out of ten, then that one is worth while and the rest will fall behind.
Your words are encouraging and inspiring.
Thanks!
***FS*** Thank-you too Dan. Good luck out there bro
Hey Frank,
Do you wanna know how future search engines results will look like? Just type ‘rush essay’ in google. Now you will see the following sites in top 10 search results, unless google screws up with local results.
http://www.rushessay.com
http://www.rushessay.net
http://www.rushessay.org
http://www.rushessays.net
http://www.rushessays.org
http://www.rushessays.com
You can send me $5 finder fee, if you like
****FS*** Funny
We’ll see if that sticks under this search term bro.
what sort of capital efficiency models are you applying to domain purchases in 2010, relative to available risks and returns offered by other vehicles? This what I’m having a hard time nailing down.
Example- about to go halvsies on a REO 4 Flat for $43k (not missing a zero. Fourty Three Thousand) that will toss off about 2600 a month, a bit over $1K net of expenses and war chest contributions. $21.5 gets me a little over $370′ish/month free cash flow, tax clean (since the property will be held in a private reit). Ridiculous annual ROE, almost no capital risk and about as durable an income stream as it comes. There are just retarded deals out there.
Take my 21.5K and make it your 215K or 2.15mm. How does one account for capital efficiency when wildcatting in the domain name space? Seeing as we’re living in a bargain-rich world that’s literally shitting long-term rainbows into the wallets of people with powder to burn, personally speaking (given my own risk profiles), I’m having a hard time breaking into the modest war chest to speculate on domains, even ones that I feel are tremendous bargains, just because it’s so hard to nail down what the ultimate upside will be- in a world full of totally quantifiable and intensely tasty available upsides.
Given the costs associated with premium names now, seeing as parking rarely throws off earnings adequate enough to offset carrying costs in terms of lost interest on principle, how to you profile speculative domain purchases into your broader investing mosaic?
***FS*** Well your real estate example is a good one. Firstly that REO is not mobile . That’s the number 1 characteristic of real estate.. It’s immobility. If the tire plant down the street closes down and your tenants leave your 43k reo could turn into a 5k white elephant. Not likely in a diversified city but still possible, look at Detroit and Buffalo. Then you’ve got tenant vacancies, unexpected maintenance beyond your war-chest, taxes.. it all eats away at your number. And that’s on a good example situation. In the domain biz you can buy an asset that makes 370 a month for 20k and sell it for 50k, and that 50k guy still has a reasonable upside. you don’t have to deal with the overhead of people to make that money. You’re not going to make those returns in a foreclosure market. Then there’s the audience dynamic. Your 20k name will probably get 50 uniques a day. That’s 1500 people a month that won’t be strolling into your foreclosure. That audience can be compounded. Still, those deals as in my example are getting more scarce. You’re not going to get them buying from me. To be totally fair, domain purchases aren’t for everyone because many folks will spend 20k on a total crap name rather than a good one and be SHOCKED that they’re not minting money in PPC. There is certainly an art to the domain business and you need to understand (and want to participate in) that art, or you’ll blow through a lot of cash and wind up with little to show for it. All that said, I do not find the present real world as bargain rich as you do.. I’m looking and I don’t see those deals. Las Vegas foreclosures notwithstanding.
I’ve been extolling the lack of virtues of real estate for years. Save for a home I purchased in 2001 in Dallas (where real estate barely increased while the U.S. coasts doubled or tripled in price), I steered clear:
You Don’t Own Real Estate. Real Estate Owns You.
http://www.loganflatt.com/2007/07/you-dont-own-real-estate-real-estate-owns-you/
I also think the US will “default” within 20 years. Maybe within 10 years:
The U.S. Will Never Be Able To Pay Back Its Debts
http://www.loganflatt.com/2009/12/the-us-will-never-be-able-to-pay-back-its-debts/
I’m not really a “domainer” (I prefer lead gen) but I enjoy reading your blog, Frank. Please continue writing it (I’m one to talk since I only post to mine once or twice a year!).
Logan.
***FS*** Very interesting.. I should have gotten into lead-gen heavier myself. Never too late I suppose. Good on you.
Sorry Frank, off the topic…still hoping to get a response!
Frank, you’re a world traveler…you’ve been to alot of different beautiful cities through out the world.
My question is: What is the one city you recommend that everyone should visit atleast once in their lifetime…and Frank, don’t just name a city just cause you own the “city”.com … LOL
***FS*** I would say to Florence (climb the Duomo) and definitely Paris (get a local English speaking driver who knows the City) Check out the Catacombs.. it’s a city underneath the city. oh, and Havana because it’s still lost in time.
Thanks for the reply.
I don’t know how many 20K names are out there that are putting out 370 a month parked, but if anyone be able to spot them, it would probably be you.
Bank Owned + Bulk Purchase + Florida. It’s absurd. You aren’t going to find these deals on Zillow or Realtor.com, though. Send up a flag that you’re liquid and ready to buy in bulk, it’s scary what comes out of the woodwork, the buy packages institutional holders are willing to cobble up and what sort of risk/demographic adjusted rent multiples are available. A client of ours just blew off 15mm on SFD’s in Palm Coast, Florida- what he wound up with dropped jaws. It’s one of those times when I wish I wasn’t a broke-dick moron and had a meaningful amount of money to park. Our recent dirt cheap four-flatter isn’t even in a blighted area (ala Detroit, Buffalo, Gary, etc). The deals are out there, but not so much on the internet and if a deal does trickle down through the insiders and make the MLS, it doesn’t last very long. Still, I guess if I was Frank Schilling with that skill-set and that knowledge base, the domain space would probably be the most lucrative medium.
Anyway, thanks again for taking the time to reply. How cool is the internet, where you can chat with guys like FS about stuff like this.
Frank I hope you are coming to Prague in October
I don’t think we are in the 80′s again. I think we were in the 80′s till about 2007, then plastic surgery became uncool, and google stock jumped the shark.
I think the most brilliant post you ever wrote, was how search was killing direct navigation. And now we see this in full effect on new updates of firefox, chrome, ie9 etc. The URL bar is now an “omnibar” and this is going to change the perception of domains for a long time.
However we do have an uprising of tablets, and I think this will open the doors to many anti-desktop people in the world that will help balance the traffic we are losing to search navigation. I think direct navigation will always have a place, but I think there is a lot still threatening our bread and butter.
Anyway if this domain stuff ever fails we can always start a rock and roll band.
***FS*** Thanks for the compliment Isaac. I thought things would get far worse than they have when I made the post you referenced. We get lots of visits from Chrome, although I honestly don’t like the way the browser feels, myself, so I don’t use it. Say Chrome adds Google instant to it’s navigation field. They will soon. Say every browser does. In the end, the browsers can’t help but direct those users to the website they select – some website.. and if you own the .com product name which is sold on the website the user selects, somebody who sells that product will want to use that name to identify themselves and their website at some point. Also, at some point that user will try force typing the better more logical name. The biggest mistake that all those trying to usurp navigation have made is this: They assume that people typing names, is an error which needs to be corrected. It is not an error. Its a human behavior. People want to explore. All this mucking around in the browser merely shifts which names are valuable.. Be it search terms, long names, catchy phrases, geo related terms – something will always be popular and people will always need a unique website to navigate to. Type “pounds to ounces” at google and you’ll see why poundstoounces.com is no longer as valuable as it used to be. But every website which sells moneyclips.com will find value in moneyclips.com; irregardless of how hard google tries to steer them to moneyclips1.net via their “instant” feature.. Remember what Yun Ye said about names.. “There is no email without a domain name.” I see a gmail address and roll my eyes that they’re college types, hobbyists or not serious about their business. A better email address is exactly the penis envy that we need to carry the space forward.
“I should have gotten into lead-gen heavier myself. Never too late I suppose. Good on you.”
Frank, if YOU had gotten into lead gen earlier than you did, you’d be richer than Warren Buffett by now, you know? Think of all that free cash flow! Sitting on domain names is no longer sufficient — there are higher uses available that need not be that expensive to implement. I realize you are dealing with thousands upon thousands of domain names, but just adding a simple opt-in form from a CPA program or an education lead gen form to your thousands of domain name landing pages would overwhelm your PPC income very quickly. Alas, I am a lowly man with only one hundred domain names and a lead gen dream, so who am I to tell you what to do with your world class portfolio of domain names, eh?
Also, to pick up on your conversation with Isaac regarding Google Instant, I work in digital marketing with big corporations as clients and all I hear from talking with people at our firm and at our clients is how they as users hate the new Google Instant. They liked the old way better. Perhaps if millions of people are feeling the same way, Google will revert back, kind of like how Coca-Cola went back on New Coke to Coke Classic after a litany of consumer complaints. Google is due for a major comeuppance these days anyway — their search products are not getting better; they are getting worse.
***FS*** You totally nailed it there Logan. And it’s not just Google. I spent the first few moments this morning reconfiguring my browser after “updates” which happened overnight, courtesy of Microsoft. I hate what they’re doing to my browser, so I’m switching to firefox.com .. I did that as a “user” not a ‘domainer’. All this gaming in the browser can’t unwind the trillions in marketing which happen every time you pass a business card across the table with .com on it. People will navigate as they want. Google, and Microsoft could spend trillions on continuing to shape the user experience, but human desire and the behavior which accompanies it, is a very difficult ship to turn.
i hate google and the new ie9 i do not need search suggestions i know where i want to go and will reguardless of what these companies do.and i am glad others do not like google instant.
concerning media companies,countries and others that could aggergate domain direct navigation 30 million hits a month. few understand what domains can accomplish and there are few large models to benchmark to.murdoch took a chance 580 million for myspace and it is now a looser. marchex really didn’t develope their portfolio.
i also believe the trick is not aggergating all traffic but traffic for selected industries…ie health industry….travel industry etc.
a domain portfolio for a selected industry.
frank your articles are awesome…with examples and thought provoking.the domain industry sure did miss your prespective.
***FS*** That is very flattering. Thank-you Domain Guy. I appreciate it. And you’re probably right. The final fix is out there, but carpet bombing 30 million monthly visits probably isn’t it. Maybe surgical strikes like you’re talking about .. I’m working on something. You’ll see it soon. Just an experiment.
Your favourite Former taxi driver over here..
Its like 4 in the a.m over here in raleigh – and i just realized – you know how easy it would be easy for you to take down farmville… simple – just direct your traffic to farm town and with the sudden rush of new players they would instantly have 40 mill uniques a month.. repeat and rinse to mafia wars e.t.c
I remember you posting something about facebook – back in the day that all you need is a shitload of traffic and buy a script off some guy on the street and trust me there are some guys in the ukraine that can whip you up a facebook script for 20 bucks an hour in 2 days. Wont be perfect but the b#$tch works
Just a thought..
Welcome back to blogging – Love each and every one of your posts.. Keep it Real – Cash in at the right Price… which for your is Every second hahaha.
Nick.
***FS*** I sold a name or two to game co’s in my day so I hear ya.
Superb. It’s a sweet vindication for me to see others who know this economic mess was triggered (it started much sooner) in mid and late ’07. I knew it when all my advertising revenue dried up … it’s never come back. Talk about hitting a reset button.
But I’ve been online for quite some time; while it’s tough to understand how big companies miss the boat on generic names, I think it can generally be brought back to an issue of egos getting in the way of generic terms. Why would Bill Gates think to get operatingsystems.com or software.com over Microsoft.com; he’s got a powerful brand that allegedly will be known forever.
Well, we’ll see about that, what with Apple kicking serious Seattle tail these days.
I’m gratified to see you blogging again, too. And your writing style ain’t that bad, dude!
P.S. Love Linkin Park! You do have their latest, right?